Psychology - Causation
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Humans infer causation in many scenarios so what…
statistical computation are they doing in their mind
Example of dataset for causation study
drug causes headaches?
Percentage(Effect/ Cause) disadvantages
ignores cases where cause is absent. Are they higher or lower. Confuses causation with correlation
P(E/C) advantages
easy to compute. Causes should increase probability of effects. Reflect basic causal reasoning
Delta p advantages
subtract the base case where causes not present. Works for preventative relationships too
Delta p disadvantages
delta p very sensitive to base case. Eg. Normal population versus hangover population. Humans not like this. Doesn’t treat sample size
Cheng’s Causal power model advantages
divide delta p by 1-base case which is maximum possible cases
Causal power model disadvantages
study shows people somewhat sensitive to base cases. People also do broader reasoning about plausibility of causation. Still no account of sample size