week 2

made the first climate model experiment of Co2 doubling - had a single coloum for the atmosphere calculated about 2.4oc global warming

Rising scientific concern about the effects of Co2 doubling probability of global warming for a doubling of Co2 to be near 3oc with a probable error of 1.5oc understood that most extra emissions caused a strengthening of the gh effect had the same estimate as the IPCC report this year

provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and the potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts

review and assess the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide to understand cc produces assessment reports by thousands of volunteer scientists who are selected by the IPCC bureau following government nomination aim to be policy-releavant not policy-prescriptive transparent - 2x stages of open international review - each comment is document and responded to by lead authors - each chapter is reviewed has calibrated uncertainty language

IPCC Plenary - open to WMO and UNEP member countries - governments play a high level in this process - member states can also make special reports on topics of interest IPCC bureau - co-chairs of the working group elected by the plenary IPCC Secretariat - based at the WMO in Geneva Working Group 1- scientific basis Working Group 2- impacts vulnerability and adaption Working Group 3 - mitigation Task force on national GHG inventories

> 99% probability

> 95% probability

> 90% probability

> 65% probability

“it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land” “human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extreme in every region across the globe”

Scope - outline is drafted and developed by govt nominated specialists Approval of outline - the pannel approves nomination of authors - govts and observers nominate expert authors Selection of authors - Bureau selects authors Expert Review 1st order draft - reviewed by experts Govt and Expert Review - draft the summary for the policy makers Final draft and SPM Govt review of final draft Approval and acceptance of report - Working group and pannel accept the final draft Publication of the draft

United National Framework Convention on Climate Change • international environmental treaty adopted in rio de Janero May 1992 aim= stabilize ghg concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system no binding emissions or enforcement mechanism

Generally they are imperfect treaties but they focus the attention on the issue, annual opportunity to focus and get media attention COP3 1997 - Kyoto - the Kyoto Protocol COP21 2015 Paris - the pairs agreement

First implementation of the UNFCCC’s objective common but differentiated responsibility = puts the obligation to reduce current emissions on developed countries on the basis that they are historically responsible for the current levels of GHG in the atmosphere • Binding emissions targets - 5% relative to 1990 by 2012 -18% relative to 1990 by 2020 emissions are monitored and there are enforcements mechanisms US has not ratified and Canada has withdrawn

hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2oc above pre-industrial levels countries determine their own mitigation strategies - no binding emissions targets or enforcement mechanisms based on actual emissions reductions pledges is an important distinguished

the most optimisitic scenario - SSP1-1.9 very strong action would be necessary - a rapid decrease in emissions