Judgement and Decision Making Part 1

How well do people actually reason describe how people actually behave

Each card has a letter on one side and a number on the other. If there is a vowel on one side, then there is an even number on the other side. Which cards would you need to turn over to conclude this is, in fact, true of these four cards? Each card has the age of the person on one side, and the kind of drink that person is drinking on the other. If a person is drinking a beer, then they must be 21 years old or older. They are both the same problem the only difference is the content But the content matters because we struggle to reason about unfamiliar domains . Which shows the idea about how people sometimes terrible at applying logic to abstract systems

Permission schema - the idea that we have to thank about permission/rules that allow something else to happen Which explains the If you are 21 or older, then you can drink beer. So, if you activate the permission schema then it easy to rationalize

Given a set of facts (premises) what can we further conclude with certainty

Given as set of observations about the world was kinds of generalization can we make that are likely to be true?

a cognitive bias where people ignore general statistical information (the base rate) and focus on specific, often less relevant, details to make a judgment, leading to inaccurate assessments of probability Like Tom focus on the idea that he is nerdy so you think it would be likely that he is an engineer but don’t take into consideration the idea they are more people in health/medical sciences

A mental shortcut A rule of thumb that is usually helpful but not guaranteed to give right answer

Making judgment based on similarity to prototype or stereotype

People estimate priors based on what is easy to recall/salient, not actual encounters

People will anchor their estimates to arbitrary numbers

They usually work and they are fast

Simple argument