RSS Evaluative Reporting
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What type of report provides an assessment of the strengths to be attached to findings?
Evaluative
Synonymous with transposing the conditional - is this type of fallacy?
Prosecutors fallacy
What is probability?
is a measurment of that event will occur * quantified as a number between 0 and 1 * zero indicates impossibility of the event occuring * one indicates certainty
What are the rules of probability?
• when an event cannot occur the probability will be 0 • when an event is certain to occur the probability is 1 • the sum of the probabilies of all the outcomes in the sample is 1 • the probability that an even will not occur is equal to 1 - the probability that the event will occur
What are the two factors that are required to determine probability?
• E the event whose probability is being considered • I the information available to the assessor when the probability of E is being considered
What are the two things that probability can be?
• Objective: a logical measure of chance where everyone would be expected to agree to the value of the relevant probability • Subjective: measuring the strength of a persons belief in a particular proposition
What is the notation that shows the probability that the accused is guilty given the evidence?
p (G|E)
What is the notation for the probability that the accused is innocent given the evidence introduced?
p (I|E)
What is Bayes Theorem?
Posterior odds = likelihood ratio x prior odds
What is the posterior odds in terms of probabilities?
Pr(Hp|Evidence) / Pr(Hd|Evidence)
Case of Lucia De Berk
• example of prosecutors fallacy • statistician said the odds were 342 million to 1 that it was a coincidence she had been duty when all incidents occurred • some deaths she wasnt actually present for • statistic was recaculated and she was acquitted
What are the two types of samples?
• recovered or questioned samples (unknown origin) • control or reference sample of known origin
What is relative frequency?
Calculated against the items observed over a period of time or from all DNA profiles in a defined population
How are the figures in the likelihood ratio formed?
• extensive surverys, databases or experimention • personal experiences and previous casework
What are the two probabilities or likelihoods?
• the likelihood of the evidence if the prosecutions proposition is true • the likelihood of the evidence if the defence proposition is true
What does the relative value of the two likelihoods provide?
• a measure of the meaning • probative value of evidence • represented as the likelihood ratio
What are the alternative names for prior odds?
• background rates • base rate
What case demonstrates base rate level?
Benn and Benn * base rate levels of drugs on banknotes
What is base rate fallacy?
making a probability judgement based on conditional probabilities without taking into account the effect of prior odds
The probability of guilt given the evidence and vice versa is an example of what odds?
Posterior
Frequencies can be both relative and?
Absolute
A logical measure of chance is referred to as this type of probability?
objective
What are three ways statistics can be expressed as?
• percentage • proportion (relative frequency) • probability/likelihood
Case of Reed and Reed (2009)
• shows issue around transfer • plastic from two separate knife handles were found next the victims body • cellular material on both pieces of plastic matched Reed and Reed