L30: Climate Modelling and Predictions of The Future
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what are the IPCC expressions of uncertainty?
virtually certain, very likely, likely, about as likely as not, unlikely, very unlikely, exceptionally unlikely,
what is observed warming being driven by?
anthropogenic emissions
why is GHG warming being partially masked?
because of aerosol cooling
how much have CH4 and nitrous oxides increased by since 1750?
150% and 20%
why will even mitigation projections shown on models see warming?
because of lag times
what ocean will likely warm the least?
the North Arlantic
do continents or oceans warm faster?
continents
is the west or east Antarctic more concerning in terms of future sea level projections?
west Antarctica as east Antarctica has a more stable climate
what is a tipping point?
threshold of rapid change
why is sea level change not constant everywhere?
because of regional differences in rates of eustatic rise/fall and vertical crustal motion
do ice sheets melt monotonically?
no, instead they collapse
why are the frequency of return events chnaging?
because the base for return events are transitioning
what are most climate models?
usually couples ocean atmosphere models
what do more complex climate models feature?
usually divided into a greater series of layers and feature much smaller grids
what length are most grids in climate models?
typically 100km or smaller
how many vertical sections are atmosphere ocean models generally divided into?
70 or more
atmospheric CO2 concentrations are higher than any time in the last … years
2 million
CH4 and N20 concentrations are higher than any time in the last … years
800,000