Exam 3

Change local phenotype (relies on phenotypic plasticity), change phenology (adjust timing of life-cycle events), and change spatial distribution

• climate change scenario (what would happen if nothing changed) • Future climate projection (use the general circulation model to figure out how emissions will affect ecosystem services and function) • Predicted biological responses • Quantifying biological changes (comparing current vs. future predicted situations) • Predicting impacts on biodiversity (assess outcome for species)

The primary tool used to translate greenhouse gas scenarios (like RCPs) into specific forecasts for future climate Uses physics and chemistry to simulate physical processes based on a certain model.

Dynamic vegetation models, climatic envelope models, and mechanistic models

Focuses on grouping plants into “functional types” and projecting large-scale shifts within entire biomes

focuses on individual species and defines “climatic niche” and maps where the niche may be in the future

Tend to be more realistic and complex. Tries to model actual biological mechanisms that drive responses (physiology, demography, species interactions, evolution, etc.)

DVMs/CEMs: phenomenological models that are based on statistical models Mechanistic models: biologically realistic, that are built on the why and how

3.7% of global extinction on the IUCN Red List cites climate change as a potential cause - it’s a pretty rare cause

A limited geographic area that avoids the worst impacts of climate change, allowing populations to persist. The fossil record shows species survived past ice ages by retreating to these areas Pretty much a freeze frame of the environment in a state that is livable Found by using CEMs to see where the species’ niche will move to

creating and improving migration pathways, assisted colonization, increasing population sizes (for more genetic variation), protection of “evolutionary hotspots”, translocating genes (move individuals that are heat-adapted to cooler populations so they can breed and introduce the needed genes)

You are intentionally introducing an alien species, which could become invasive and drive native species in the new habitat extinct

A species that exists within its natural range and has a historical dispersal potential

An alien species is a species that is found outside its natural range (indirect or direct human introduction) An invasive alien species is a non-native species that proliferates and threatens native biological diversity

A species is unable to spread to a suitable habitat due to natural barriers

ways that humans assist in the dispersal of species that were once prevented due to limitations

a measure of the introduction effort. number of individuals introduced in a single event + number of introduction events (the higher this value, the more likely a species will be established)

an alien species will take over an empty niche by using the habitat and resources in a way that native species don’t use

A hypothesis that alien species are able to survive because they bring their own “weapons” that native species are not equipped to deal with

alien species survive well in their new range because they no longer have to deal with their natural predators murking them

alien species do well in human-made, disturbed environments that native species do not do well in, typically

Over time, communities in different places become more and more similar due to specialists dying off and being replaced with the same couple of generalist species (decreasing beta-diversity)

1st management strategy in stopping an IAS from even stepping a raggedy foot into the new location - most cost-effective

Completely ctrl+alt+deleting an IAS from an area after it has been detected but before it goes widespread