impacts, adaptation and mitigation
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definition of effect
A change in some aspect of the environment
what did boris johnon say about the impacts and consequences?
temps will go up by 2.7 degrees or more by the end of the century we will see desertification, drought, crop failure and mass movements of humanity on a scale not seen before. - blames us humans as well!
definition of impact
An effect with a consequence
ipcc ar6 definiton of impact:
Impact- The consequences of realized risks on natural and human systems…Impacts generally refer to effects on lives, livelihoods, health and well-being, ecosystems and species, economic, social and cultural assets, services (including ecosystem services), and infrastructure. Impacts may be referred to as consequences or outcomes and can be adverse or beneficial. IPCC AR6 Glossary
detection
can we detect a trend of the impacts?
attribution
can we attribute the trend to human activities?
impacts: list 3
crop growth liveligood hunger food security
Direct risks can cascade into …..
SYSTEMIC RISKS
Impacts and risks are a function of change in …… 3 THINGS?
hazard, exposure and vulnerability • They therefore depend on climate change and on socio- economic change
heatwaves lead to impacts on…
health infrastructure crop yields
impacts of more/less floods , droughts, wildfire
water supply damage and injury crop yields
impacts of snow and ice - less snow
water supply infrastructure tourism
higher sea level and more floods impacts
damage and injury infrastructure
what are 5 example indicators of direct impact?
1 population exposed to drought 2 river flood risk 3 heatwave risk 4 cropland drought risk 5 maize heat stress risk
Future socio-economic impacts can depend as much on socio-economic assumptions as on the …
amount of climate change.
list 7 direct risks
heatwaves droughts floods storms fire ecosystem changes agricultural suitability
list 7 systemic risks:
loss of livelihoods displacement conflict financial disruption economic disruption human health impacts food insecurity
climate sensitivity definition
Defines temperature response to forcing *Approximately 0.8 K / (W/m-2)
list the natural and anthropogenic forcings :
Natural and anthropogenic forcings *Natural = solar, volcanic, orbital *Anthropogenic = greenhouse gases, aerosols, changes in albedo *Total observed forcing = 2.7 W/m-2 since 1750
whats next in reducing the rate of climate change?
MITIGATION INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY BUDETS AND TARGERS
whats next in adapting to a changing climate?
ADAPTATION RISK ASSESSMENT ESTIMATING LOCAL CHANGES
definition of mitigation
reducing the amount of climate change reducing emissions / storing carbon
list the 4 mitigation measures
• Decarbonise energy sources Renewables / nuclear / biomass / hydrogen • Reduce demand for energy Substitution / elimination • Use energy more efficiently Reduce energy intensity • Reduce sources / increase sinks Manage land / Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) • Geo-engineering Manipulate the climate or the carbon budget…
GEOENGINEERING - HOW?
• Mirrors in space • Aerosols in the atmosphere • Fertilise the ocean